The climate ambitions of Rutte-III: 49% emission reduction

In the Paris Agreement (December 2015), 195 countries agreed to limit global warming to no more than 2°C and to aim for a 1.5°C. The Rutte-III administration stated in its coalition agreement (October 2017): "it is our duty to do everything we can to meet that target". Based on this duty, the target to realize 49% emission reduction in 2030 followed.

the climate ambitions of Rutte-III

The Rutte-III administration decided to reduce greenhouse gasses by 49% by 2030 compared to 1990. At the time, this goal was more ambitious than that of the European Union, which was 40% reduction by 2030. However, this European target was insufficient to meet the (then new) Paris Agreement. With the 49% goal, the Netherlands would make its contribution to limiting climate change to 2°C.

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The 49% target would be, as the coalition agreement noted, "passed into a Climate Act" and there would be a "national Climate and Energy Agreement" to give civil society more certainty. The National Climate Agreement is discussed in detail in Chapter 2; first we take a look at what's in the Climate Act.

The Climate Act

In May 2019, the Climate Act was officially approved by the Senate. As such, the 49% target was made into law. The Climate Act also states that by 2050 emissions must be 95% lower than in 1990.

The Climate Act also prescribes legal obligations to report on climate policy progress. The following documents are required:

The Climate Plan ('Klimaatplan') contains the main points of climate policy for the next ten years and is adopted every five years.

The Climate Memorandum ('Klimaatnota') annually describes the government's position on the progress of climate policy.

The Council of State advises on the Climate Plan and the Climate Memorandum.

The Climate and Energy Outlook ('Klimaat- en Energieverkenning') shows actual greenhouse gas emissions on an annual basis.

These documents will be covered in more detail later. And rest assured, there will be many more funny climate names and abbreviations. It should all be a little confusing, obviously, otherwise you'll be through this deep dive too quickly. However, to help you out a bit, take the quiz below to see if you already know the climate names from this chapter.

The Climate Act

Do you know all the climate names?

[ld_quiz quiz_id="13477"]

From coalition agreement to the start of the National Climate Agreement

The Rutte-III administration wanted to reach socially supported climate policy with a National Climate Agreement. The government set the frameworks for this agreement: the final goal (49% reduction) and a reduction task in megatons of CO₂ equivalents per sector.

Reduce CO₂ equivalents? Why is the term used in climate policy?

The creation of the targets per sector is not easy to follow. The 49% target is clearly stated in the coalition agreement, but the targets per sector emerge out of a maze of numbers. Below we have made this maze a little more comprehensible for you.

Choose either the short or detailed explanation to learn how the targets for the National Climate Agreement were determined.

(1) The reduction from the coalition agreement: 56 megaton

(2) An arithmetic windfall: only a 45 megaton reduction still needed

(3) Proposal from Rutte-III for the National Climate Agreement

The reduction from the coalition agreement: 56 megaton

In 1990 Dutch emissions were 221 megatons. In the National Energy Outlook 2016 (NEV 2016), a document prepared by ECN, PBL, CBS and RVO to provide "an annual, broad and factual overview of the developments of the Dutch energy system," it was calculated that, with established policy before the start of Rutte-III, emissions in 2030 would be 168 megatons. This reduction of (rounded) 53 megatons was achieved in the following ways:

De nationale broeikasgasemissies waren in de periode van 1990 – 2015 gedaald van 222 naar 198 megaton CO₂-equivalenten: een reductie van 24 megaton. Deze daling is grotendeels toe te schrijven aan minder niet-CO₂ broeikasgassen in de gebouwde omgeving en landbouw.

It was expected that, with intended policies known in 2016, greenhouse gas emissions would decrease by 27 megatonnes over the period from 2015 - 2020. This would be achieved by the following reductions:

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Decrease of 20 megatons in the electricity sector due to (1) the closure of five coal-fired power plants by 2020 (commitment from the Energy Agreement), (2) an increase in electricity imports and (3) the growth of renewable electricity production.

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Decrease of 3 megatons in the built environment due to a decrease in gas consumption in households and the service sector.

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Decrease of 1.5 megatons in the mobility sector due to the use of biofuels.

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Decrease of 1.5 megatons from (1) lower methane emissions from landfills and (2) lower methane slip emissions from less use of chp plants

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Decrease of 1 megaton in the agricultural sector from (1) energy conservation, (2) increased renewable energy, and (3) increased use of gas boilers.

Between 2020 and 2030, emissions would decrease by about 3 megatons. This is due to the following:

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Increase of 6.3 megatons in the energy and industrial sector due to (1) growth in fossil electricity production and (2) a switch around 2023 to start exporting electricity instead of importing it.

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Decrease of 3.3 megatons in the built environment due to (1) increased enforcement of the Environmental Management Act ('Wet Milieubeheer') for businesses, (2) mandatory label C for offices and (3) (to a small extent) due to less gas use in households.

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Decrease of 2.4 megatons due to less natural gas extraction.

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Decrease of 1.5 megatons through a more fuel-efficient vehicle fleet.

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Decrease of 1.4 megaton due to fewer CHP installations for agriculture and greenhouse horticulture.

To arrive at a 49% reduction from 1990 levels, a maximum emission of 112 megatons was required. This left a residual challenge of 168 - 112 = 56 megatons. This was the number that was in the Rutte-III coalition agreement.

Proposal from Rutte-III for the National Climate Agreement

In a March 2018 memorandum, PBL, at the request of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate (EZK), provides an update on cost-effective climate policy. In it, six packages were calculated in which the new policy task for the 49% target, 45 megatonnes, is implemented. The package chosen by the EZK takes into account the reduction task that should take place after 2030, keeping 95% reduction in 2050 in sight.

In a letter to the House of Representatives, the administration indicates which sectoral targets apply to the National Climate Agreement. For mobility, agriculture and land use, a different choice was made than advised by PBL. For mobility, the ambitions already set in the Energy Agreement were upheld, resulting in a higher target. For agriculture and land use, agreements from the Rutte-III coalition agreement were maintained, although these don't count towards the 49% target.

As a result, the overall picture is as follows:

wdt_ID	Sectors	Existing policies	Coalition agreement	PBL	National Climate Agreement
1	Elektriciteit & Industrie	74	45	12 + 36	12 + 36
2	Built environment	18	13	15	15
3	Agriculture	23	19	23	22
4	Land use	7	7	---	---
5	Mobility	32	28	27	25
6	Total	154	112	113	110

This translates into the following, additional target per sector:

electricity

20.2 megatons

built environment

3.4 megatons

Industry

14.3 megatons

landbouw & landgebruik

3.5 megatons

mobility

7.3 megatons

totaal

20.2 megatons

In addition to these sectoral targets, the administration also provided the following frameworks for the National Climate Agreement:

Focus on one central goal: 49% greenhouse gas reduction in 2030 compared to 1990

Cost efficiency must be the guiding principle in choices

Commitments from the Rutte-III coalition agreement are the starting point

Measures are future-oriented: focus on 2030, but do not lose sight of the period after that

Commitments are concrete and complete

An integral approach is needed

The agreement serves the public interest

Commitments can be calculated

What’s in the National Climate Agreement?

We now know which calculations led to the targets for the National Climate Agreement. Five "main tables" were established, named after the sectors, and the government invited more than 100 parties to join the negotiations at these tables. Together, these parties had to determine how to reach each sector's targets.

So, what's actually in the National Climate Agreement? We will show this in the next chapter.