Outlook Climate Policy

You now know the goals of Dutch climate policy and whether the Netherlands is on track to meet them. Let's look ahead to what else you can learn about climate policy.

a reflection on climate policy

Climate policy in the Netherlands is not going away. After a slow run-up from the 1990s, more concrete goals and plans have been made since the Paris Agreement in 2015. With the targets of the Rutte-III and Rutte-IV administrations, climate policy has become an integral part of society. This also applies to the rest of Europe: with the Green Deal, European Climate Law and Fit for 55, there is a clear ambition to move towards a climate-neutral society.

However, the current Dutch plans are insufficient to meet the national 55% target. Moreover, if you add up all the national plans, the world is also not on track to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The table below shows the expected rise in average global temperature, as analyzed by the unep emissions gap report.

Year

Finding

2016

This report estimates we are actually on track for global warming of up to 3.4 degrees Celsius.

2020

The world is still heading for a temperature rise in excess of 3°C this century.

2021

New national climate pledges combined with other mitigation measures put the world on track for a global temperature rise of 2.7°C by the end of the century.

2022

Policies currently in place point to a 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century. Implementation of the current pledges will only reduce this to a 2.4-2.6°C temperature rise by the end of the century, for conditional and unconditional pledges respectively.

2023

If current policies are continued, global warming is estimated to be limited to 3°C. Delivering on all unconditional and conditional pledges by 2030 lowers this estimate to 2.5°C, with the additional fulfilment of all net-zero pledges bringing it to 2°C.

2024

A continuation of current policies is estimated to limit global warming to a maximum of 3.1°C (range: 1.9–3.8) over the course of the century. The full implementation and continuation of the level of mitigation effort implied by unconditional or conditional NDC scenarios lower these projections to 2.8°C (range: 1.9–3.7) and 2.6°C (range: 1.9–3.6), respectively.

In the table below you can also compare the Dutch emissions with those of other countries.

wdt_ID	Country	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000	1999	1998	1997	1996	1995	1994	1993	1992	1991	1990
213	Afghanistan	29	28	27	27	27	27	27	29	29	27	23	21	17	17	16	15	16	15	12	12	13	12	12	11	10	9	9	9	10	10
214	Albania	9	9	9	9	8	9	8	8	8	8	8	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	7	8	8	7	7	7	8	8	7	7	9	11
215	Algeria	282	278	269	266	263	253	239	235	215	207	204	202	197	194	186	178	175	163	157	164	155	149	147	147	144	137	135	127	126	121
216	Andorra	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
217	Angola	128	120	131	134	136	130	128	126	127	127	122	120	117	113	115	115	112	105	102	81	88	90	81	82	76	73	70	67	67	66
218	Antigua en Barbuda	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
219	Argentina	399	405	408	403	436	429	431	421	416	435	429	450	445	433	418	414	398	376	379	337	338	330	325	319	308	306	302	302	297	293
220	Armenia	10	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	8	8	8	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	6	9	15	25	25
221	Australia	608	621	627	578	569	570	554	640	640	596	626	609	638	638	590	628	576	653	656	651	633	594	567	557	558	550	544	542	541	541
222	Austria	70	68	72	70	69	68	72	71	74	77	72	78	79	82	84	84	83	78	77	65	65	67	67	68	64	62	62	62	67	63

Dilemmas remain in climate policy. How do you balance between emissions, costs and support? Do you focus primarily on national reduction or is the European context the most important? Do you produce fossil products in the Netherlands for which there is still global demand or do you (quickly) phase out all fossil industry? Per sector these dilemmas will be different, but in principle the choices always revolve around three options: (1) reduce demand; (2) reduce emissions per unit of demand and (3) switch to a sustainable alternative to meet demand. In the game, make climate tables you can decide yourself about these dilemmas.

There are so many topics not covered in this deep dive. For example, why climate policy is so important and what the consequences are and will be for the Netherlands. Also, the prospects beyond 2030 were not discussed: how do we eventually achieve nearly zero emissions in 2050? And topics that are regularly in the news, such as geopolitics, energy poverty, hydrogen and grid congestion, have also not received the attention they deserve. It is absolutely worthwhile (and necessary) to dig deeper into these issues.

This deep dive was finalized in February 2023. Using the KEV, there will be an annual update with the latest figures.

references

The information of this deep dive is mainly based on the following documents:

part 1

Rutte-III coalition agreement and the National Climate Agreement

part 2

official European publications and the Rutte-IV coalition agreement

part 3

the Climate and Energy Outlook from 2019 onwards.

Supplementary to this, government communications, PBL analyses and the Climate Notes were read to further supplement the information from these documents.

references

learning more

The best analysis on climate change can be found in the IPCC reports. Read the latest synthesis rapport for a summary of all climate science. Or explore adaptation, mitigation or the natural sciences in three separate reports. You can also read further on relevant topics such as tipping points tipping points in other studies.

On an annual basis reports are published that provide insight into the latest climate figures. These include the dutch climate and energy outlook, unep emissions gap report, unfccc ndc synthesis report and the iea world energy outlook. Often these are published toward the end of the year.

Podcasts are also good (and often entertaining) sources for climate policy analysis. For example, listen to (Dutch podcasts) voetnoten or studio energie or more clarity on Dutch climate policy. International, political analysis can be heard in outrage + optimism and stories about climate solutions in how to save a planet.

Sometimes it's nicer to absorb a (fictional) story rather than a serious reading. Discover climate novels that suit you in, for example, these articles from The Guardian, grist and business insider. Or watch films about climate change such as a life on our planet, don’t look up, or the biggest little farm.

Climate Tables is certainly not the only game about climate change. For example, you can save the Netherlands from a water disaster in pandemic rising tideOr build a sustainable electricity grid in gigawatt. Prefer to work together to combat climate change? In that case, choose daybreak. And you can have your species adapt to a dynamic ecosystem in evolution: climate.

Finally, it's also worthwhile (and fun) to do something yourself. Choose a study or employer where you can further learn about and contribute to addressing climate change. Join an association or organization where you can meet other climate enthusiasts. Make conscious choices in what you do and consume. Share stories and insights with friends and family. Create new, fun products so we all build more climate knowledge.

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feedback & recensie

quiz

This is all we wanted to share with you. Take a final quiz now (or later) to test yourself on the knowledge gained. You decide yourself what a good score is and you can take the quiz as many times as you want.