Is Dutch climate policy on track to meet the 49% and 55% targets by 2030?

Climate policy should lead to less greenhouse gas emissions. In this chapter we see whether the Netherlands is on track to meet the 49% and 55% targets.

the 49% and 55% targets

Calculating climate policies is no easy task. Assumptions about the future are necessary to estimate effects.

Let's start with where we are today. See in the graph below how high the emissions were in the Netherlands in recent years and how that compares to the 49% and 55% targets.

How to use the graphs?

Move or click over a line or bar to highlight it. A box will then also reveal the specific value.
Hover over a specific topic in the legend to highlight it.
Click on a topic in the legend to remove it from the graph. Click on the topic again to return it to the graph.

Emissions in the Netherlands since 2018

Explanation of graph 'Emissions in the Netherlands since 2018'

The graph shows two things: emissions in the Netherlands since 2018 and the emissions required for the 49% and 55% targets.
For the 55% target, there are two values: a minimum and maximum. Emissions for the 55% target are still indicative, the allocation among the sectors has not yet been finalized. As a result, a range is shown. Total emissions should be 102 megatons in 2030 at the most.
Land use has a special position in the National Climate Agreement: emissions in the sector don't count towards the 49% reduction target. However, the sector has been tasked with reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 1.5 megatonnes by 2030 via new policies.
For comparison, total emissions in 1990 were 227 megatonnes. This was divided among the sectors in the following ways:
- Electricity: 39.6 megatons
- Built environment: 30.0 megatons
- Industry: 86.4 megatons
- Agriculture: 33.1 megatons
- Land use 5.7 megatons
- Mobility: 32.2 megatons

The Climate and Energy Outlook (dutch climate and energy outlook) also makes a prediction each year of projected emissions in 2030. In the graphy below, see the predictions for total emissions and how they compare to the 49% and 55% targets.

Expected emissions in the Netherlands in 2030 (total)

Explanation of graph 'Expected emissions in the Netherlands in 2030 (total)'

Each KEV makes a prediction about total emissions in 2030. This graph shows the predictions since 2019.
In every KEV, with the exception of 2019, this prediction has a range. The blue bar shows the minimum expected emissions. The red bar shows the maximum expected emissions.
At the bottom you can see the total emissions associated with the 49% and 55% targets.

The same forecast can also be divided by sector. The chart below shows the minimum and maximum projected emissions by sector in 2030.

Expected emissions in the Netherlands in 2030 (by sector)

Explanation of graph 'Expected emissions in the Netherlands in 2030 (by sector)'

The graph shows two lines per sector: minimum and maximum expected emissions from the KEV.
For the 49% and 55% targets, the minimum and maximum expected emissions per sector are also given. For the 49% target these are the same, for the 55% target there is a variation.

In addition to the numbers on total emissions, there are other interesting statistics by sector. Click on the buttons below to discover them. No additional statistics can be seen for industry.

KEV chooses which policies it uses in its calculations. It's helpful to know the difference so you can better assess the numbers.

electricity

For the production of electricity, the Netherlands uses different sources. The graph below shows which sources these are and how much electricity they have produced in recent years. The right axis shows the percentage of renewable electricity in total electricity production.

Electricity production in the Netherlands since 2018

The KEV also makes annual forecasts of projected electricity production by source in 2030. The graph below shows this.

Expected electricity production in the Netherlands in 2030

electricity

built environment

To produce heat for the built environment (households and the service industry), the Netherlands uses various sources. The graph below shows which sources these are and how much heat they have produced in recent years.

Usage of heat in the built environment in the Netherlands since 2018

The KEV also makes predictions each year about expected heat production by source in 2030. The graph below shows this.

Expected heat use in the built environment in the Netherlands in 2030

mobility

Mobility uses various sources of energy in the Netherlands. The graph below shows which sources these are and how much energy was used per source.

Use of energy sources for mobility in the Netherlands since 2018

The KEV also makes annual forecasts of expected energy use in mobility in 2030. The graph below shows this.

Expected energy use in mobility in the Netherlands in 2030

mobility

landbouw & landgebruik

A major source of emissions in agriculture is animal husbandry. The graph below shows how many cattle there are in the Netherlands and what kind of cattle they are.

Number of cattle in the agricultural sector in the Netherlands since 2018

The KEV also makes predictions each year about the expected number of animals in 2030. The graph below shows this.

Expected amount of cattle in the agricultural sector in the Netherlands in 2030

Land use emissions are caused by different types of landscapes. Some absorb emissions, some emit net emissions. The chart below shows emissions by landscape type.

Emissions per type of landscape in the Netherlands since 2018

The KEV also makes predictions each year about projected emissions by land use type. The graph below shows this.

Expected emissions per type of landscpae in the Netherlands in 2030

discover other climate targets

This deep dive focuses on the national 49% and 55% targets. These aren't the only relevant climate goals for the Netherlands; there are other targets that are important too. Find out in the next chapter whether the Netherlands is on track to meet these historic and future goals.