System 1 and System 2 are the (simplified) concepts we use to explain how our brain makes decisions. The vast majority of the information you receive is processed by System 1. It constantly monitors what is happening around you and makes quick analyses based on it. These processes take place automatically and thus require no conscious effort on your part.
When System 1 struggles, it calls in the help of System 2. By following (learned) procedures and rules, you solve a problem with this system. It is also good at identifying the differences between options, allowing you to make better choices. What System 2 actions have in common is that they cost a lot of energy. This makes System 2, by necessity, lazy: it only comes into action when an event is unsolvable for System 1.
For most activities you undertake, System 1 is in charge. However, when System 2 is activated, it also determines how something happens and it has the final say in making decisions. This does not mean that System 1 is completely thrown out the window: much of the information System 2 relies upon comes from System 1. The final decision made by System 2 rationalizes and accepts ideas and feelings provided by System 1.
Acts automatically, quickly and independently
Creates impressions and feelings
Distinguishes the abnormal from the normal
Decides on causes and intentions
Ignores ambiguity and doubt
Focuses on available evidence and ignores absent evidence
Provides competent reactions and intuitions
Makes judgments based on standard values and examples
Is more sensitive to change than to specific values
Reacts more strongly to losses than to gains
Can estimate shapes and distances
Analyzes problems one by one
Acts slowly, deliberately and infrequently
Uses a lot of energy and has limited capacity
Author of the thoughts we have.
Intervenes when System 1 cannot solve the problem.
Follows rules and procedures.
Can make choices between different options.
Can reason, plan and make complex calculations.
Is careful and thoughtful.
Often takes suggestions from System 1 in the search for information and arguments.
Can resist suggestions from System 1 by slowing down and making analyses
The collaboration between System 1 and 2 is based on efficiency. System 1 is in control and operates on autopilot. System 2 waits patiently. As long as no help is requested from System 2, System 1 continues to handle all possible information as efficiently as possible.
And yet, this cooperation does not always run smoothly. Sometimes our brain oversimplifies information too much and too quickly and we form wrong judgments or make bad decisions. Hence, biases can develop in the following way:
1
In subsequent situations, you make the same thinking error and your reaction becomes a systematic error.
2
System 2 does not intervene and thereby accepts the wrong reaction of System 1.
3
In future situations, you make the same thinking error and your reaction becomes a systematic error.
System 2 may also process information from System 1 incorrectly. This may be because System 2 overthinks the situation or makes up questionable reasons to do actions anyway.
Our brain very often makes the right decisions, but everyone also suffers from biases. It is difficult to avoid every bias: System 1 does not easily allow itself to be presented with a different picture of the world.
Not every decision influenced by biases has a major impact on your life. But with important, complex decisions, it is nice to eliminate biases as much as possible.
Complex decisions can be about many different issues. Often these decisions are difficult to reverse, so the impact of biases can be greater than you would like. There are eight factors that make complex decisions so difficult.
They involve multiple variables
They require full-spectrum analysis
You are forced to predict the future
They involve varied levels of uncertainty
There are often conflicting objectives
You need to harbor undiscovered options.
You are prone to System 1 failings.
You are vulnerable to failures of collective intelligence.
Three steps can help you to make complex decisions: (1) mapping, (2) predicting, and (3) deciding. You don't want to apply these three steps to every single matter in your life, but only for the really complex decisions, since it's time intensive to go through these steps.
step 1
mapping
Start by making an overview that includes all possible options. The key is to be clear about which variables are involved and how these variables relate to each other. The trick is to come up with divergent, varied relationships among the variables. The group should not work towards a consensus when mapping, but rather put the different directions on the table.
For step 1, you can use the charrette method. This is a series of short meetings in which a small group of people work together quickly on a specific topic. It's an open process where stakeholders come together in different groups. By providing short, repetitive feedback loops participants get a holistic view of the topic.
step 2
predicting
The next step is to look to the future. You need creativity, empathy and logic to make good predictions. In some disciplines, you can get good insight into the future through simulations, but games and stories are also valid options. For all of these formats, you need to explore multiple future scenarios. A simple way to do this is to work out three options: one where it gets better, one where it gets worse and one where something crazy happens.
For step 2, you can use a premortem. In this method, you imagine that at some time in the future, say a few months, your plan failed. Now you have to argue why this plan failed and what caused it. Often you apply this in a group situations in which multiple causes are brought forward.
step 3
deciding
The first two steps help you to look at the subject with new points of view. It does not offer you certainty about what will actually happen, but it does prepare you for the various future scenarios. Based on this, you can then make an informed decision. Sometimes this is easy and you can make the choice quickly, using System 1. If a decision isn't straightforward, you have to make trade-offs: you can choose the option with the greatest chance of success, least risk of disastrous effect or the most flexible option.
For step 3, you can use a value model. This model lists the values that are most important to you. These don't always have to be related to yourself, but can also reflect your worldview. You then link these values to the different scenarios for the decision to be made. The scenario with the highest score is the best option to go for.
